What is Applied Futures?
In today’s fast-paced world, businesses face the constant challenge of keeping up with rapidly changing trends and technologies. Rather than simply reacting to these changes, successful organizations are those that anticipate and adapt to future developments. This proactive approach ensures not only survival but also enables businesses to thrive in an unpredictable landscape. Enter Applied Futures, a powerful framework that helps organizations not only understand but also actively shape their future trajectories.
Unlike traditional forecasting methods that aim to predict a single outcome, Applied Futures encourages businesses to explore multiple plausible futures, enabling them to develop strategies for success across a wide range of potential scenarios. By embracing uncertainty and fostering resilience, organizations can prepare for whatever tomorrow may bring.
Understanding the Futures Cone: At the core of futures thinking is the Futures Cone, a conceptual model that illustrates the range of potential futures an organization might face. The cone visually expands outward from the present moment, representing the increasing uncertainty as time moves forward. The model divides future possibilities into several layers: Plausible Futures: Represented by the outermost layer, these are scenarios that could reasonably happen based on current knowledge and trends, though they may be less likely or extreme. Probable Futures: Inside the plausible layer, these are futures that are more likely to occur, grounded in current trends and expectations. Preferred Futures: This layer represents the futures that we desire or aim for, often driven by organizational or personal goals. It reflects what is most favorable or desirable. Possible Futures: Represented by the widest part of the cone, these include all potential futures that could happen, even those that may seem far-fetched based on our current understanding. The Futures Cone helps organizations visualize and explore a range of futures rather than relying on a single, linear prediction. This multidimensional approach to planning ensures that businesses are prepared for a variety of outcomes, from the expected to the unexpected.
The Applied Futures Approach: Combining Design Thinking and Futures Studies
Applied Futures merges the strengths of Design Thinking and Strategic Foresight/Futures Studies, overcoming the limitations of each individual approach. This integration creates a dynamic framework that balances user-centered problem-solving with long-term, visionary thinking, allowing organizations to not only address immediate challenges but also build sustainable futures.
Limitations of Design Thinking and Futures Studies
Design Thinking, while effective in generating innovative solutions to meet current user needs, often struggles with addressing more complex, future-oriented challenges. Its short-term focus and potential scalability issues can result in superficial innovation and a lack of depth when tackling systemic problems. Furthermore, Design Thinking can lack a robust ethical framework, which is increasingly important in today's socially conscious business environment.
On the other hand, Futures Studies excels at developing long-term visions and exploring broad future possibilities. However, its abstract and often theoretical nature can make practical application difficult for many organizations. The result can be a disconnect between insightful future scenarios and the actionable strategies needed to navigate the present.
The Applied Futures Framework: A Synergistic Solution
The Applied Futures Framework seamlessly weaves together the best of both worlds—Design Thinking and Futures Studies—to provide a holistic, actionable approach. The framework is structured to guide organizations from visionary thinking to tangible outcomes. Here’s how it works:
The Double Diamond: Drawing inspiration from Dan Nessler’s “Evolved Double Diamond” and The Fountain Institute’s “Double Diamond of Speculative Design,” this approach employs an iterative and expansive problem-solving process. It allows teams to explore wide-ranging possibilities before narrowing down to focused, strategic solutions.
Futures Studies Integration: Futures thinking is integrated throughout the entire design process—from the initial scoping and research phase to ideation and prototyping. This ensures that long-term implications and emerging trends are considered at every stage.
Workshop Model: Inspired by the efficiency of Design Sprints and the collaborative methodologies of Hyper Island, the Applied Futures Framework utilizes a structured workshop model. This "journey" is divided into modules, with hands-on activities conducted in workshops and mid-term sessions. These sessions enable teams to move through discovery, ideation, and solution development in an immersive and participatory environment.
Key Roles: Central to the framework are the roles of ‘Futures Ambassadors’ and ‘Futures Facilitators’, who are essential for guiding the process and ensuring the framework is effectively implemented within an organization. These roles help build futures literacy, ensuring that teams can actively engage in futures thinking and translate insights into actionable strategies.
The Benefits of the Applied Futures Framework
Organizations that adopt the Applied Futures Framework gain significant advantages that prepare them for both present challenges and future uncertainties:
Enhanced Foresight and Proactive Planning: The framework enables organizations to foresee and adapt to emerging changes, fostering a proactive culture that embraces continuous learning and innovation. This foresight allows businesses to pivot quickly in response to evolving trends and disruptions.
Actionable Strategies for Future Scenarios: By bridging the gap between abstract future visions and concrete actions, the framework empowers organizations to develop practical strategies and roadmaps. This ensures they are prepared for a range of possible futures, from the predictable to the unexpected.
Future-Proofing for Long-Term Success: The Applied Futures Framework equips organizations to make informed decisions today that align with their long-term objectives. By proactively engaging with the future, businesses ensure their relevance and competitiveness, even in the face of rapid change.
Conclusion: Future-Ready Starts Today
The future isn’t something that just happens to businesses—it’s something that can be actively shaped and influenced. By embracing Applied Futures, organizations can not only anticipate what’s ahead but also make strategic moves that ensure long-term success. In a world where change is constant, this approach provides the foresight and flexibility needed to thrive.
If your organization is ready to future-proof its strategies and embrace proactive innovation, explore the Applied Futures Framework today.